Every presidential election since 1964 has been won by the candidate backed by the most united party; yet as party unity has become more important to voting decisions, it has also become increasingly difficult to achieve. In his latest book, Martin Wattenberg offers an in-depth interpretation of the presidential elections of the 1980s, illuminating current theories of political behavior and how they operate in today's candidate-centered politics. Wattenberg investigates the impact that political parties' declining relevance has had on presidential politics. As the parties' ability to polarize opinion weakened and voters were set politically adrift, the candidates themselves had to fill the power vacuum. Interestingly, as the candidates have become more prominent, their popularity has spiraled downward. Wattenberg's national survey data debunks the notion of Reagan as the teflon president;' demonstrating that many negative judgments stuck to Reagan's public image throughout the 198os, particularly the criticisms of his conservative policies. The author's intricate analysis shows that many people were torn between candidates whose policies they preferred and those who they thought would produce the best results, and these contradictory attitudes were primarily resolved in favor of Reagan and Bush. This book is not only the successor volume to the author's widely used book on American parties, it is also a controversial and thought-provoking commentary on American parties, politics, and representative government.
Wattenberg starts by reviewing theories of how people vote. Do people vote because of where they live? Do people vote because their families have always voted for this or that party? Do people vote for one party because they are dissatisfied with economic conditions? With changing social values? Or do people choose someone because the candidate seems to be the right person for the job? The book then presents presidential election returns and polling data ranging between 1952 and 1988 and the trend is unmistakable. People are voting less and less along party lines, less and less according to policy trends (which had stabilized) and more according to performance. The data indicates that voters in the 1980 election didn't so much elect Ronald Reagan as they rejected Jimmy Carter. Likewise in 1988, they didn't so much elect Bush senior as they re-elected Reagan to a third term. Interestingly, being elected doesn't seem to confer a policy mandate of any sort on a candidate, or at least not as strong a mandate as first impressions would lead us to think. What matters most is not which policy platform the candidate will adopt, what matters most is who the candidates are and how people expect them to perform. Conservatives should not dismiss the liberal author's conclusions since they seem to have been corroborated by election results since 1992. Wattenberg uncovered trends that all politicians need to consider. Vincent Poirier, Tokyo
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